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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-05T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17677/-1
CME Note: The observed CME starts to faintly emerge from the SE quadrant of SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2021-09-05T21:36Z, after which a halo feature becomes visible towards the south starting around 2021-09-05T23:36Z. May be associated with the combined eruptions from AR2865 at 2021-09-05T17:54Z (associated with a B7.9 flare) and from AR2864 at 2021-09-05T18:48Z (associated with a B7.0 flare). (CME activity ID: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001). CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A slight compression in magnetic field is detected starting at 2021-09-10T01:32Z and is subsequently followed by ICME features (notable increases in B-field values and large-scale B-field rotations).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-10T01:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-10T05:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-09-06T08:17Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 341
Longitude (deg): W000
Latitude (deg): N31
Half-angular width (deg): 52

Notes: Filament eruption from Ex-2865 plage area in NE quadrant. Accompanied by dimming in AIA211 and EIT wave. This is a fit attempt to the shock seen heading below ecliptic plane as an arc during the UTC evening of 05 September, but no other ejecta visible. Wide cone angle implies this may well be the case. No pairs of images to triangulate to between St A and Lasco, very low confidence. May amalgamate with earlier CME given likely error in measurement, but kept as (larger) distinct arrival in available Enlil modelling.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 64.95 hour(s)
Difference: -3.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-09-07T08:35Z

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